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Riforme, il referendum è in bilico. Solo Berlusconi può salvare Renzi, avvicinamento sulla giustizia

Silvio Berlusconi

Silvio Berlusconi

I numeri del Referendum sulle trivelle preoccupa il governo in vista del Referendum costituzionale di ottobre, 13.334.764 italiani hanno votato sì al referendum sulle trivelle. Certo, il quorum non è stato raggiunto e quindi formalmente Matteo Renzi ha vinto la sua sfida, soprattutto con il Governatore della Puglia Michele Emiliano. Ma attenzione, perché in vista della battaglia delle battaglie, il referendum confermativo sulle riforme istituzionali di ottobre, i numeri preoccupano Palazzo Chigi.

Ipotizzando un’affluenza alle urne del 60% circa – stima condivisa da tutti i sondaggisti – e non essendoci il quorum, a differenza dei referendum abrogativi, per vincere servono poco più di 15 milioni di voti. Se tutti coloro che hanno votato sì questa domenica sulle trivelle confermassero la loro opposizione al premier e al governo, votando quindi no in ottobre al DDL Boschi e alla riforma della Carta, la vittoria del sì, quindi di Renzi, sarebbe davvero in bilico.

Considerando che non tutti gli italiani anti-governo sono andati alle urne sulle trivelle, il capo dell’esecutivo dovrà riuscire a portare tutti i suoi elettori ai seggi in autunno e convincere anche molti sostenitori di Forza Italia a votare sì. E’ facile immaginare che avendo il premier legato al referendum la sua stessa presenza a Palazzo Chigi, Movimento 5 Stelle, Lega e Fratelli d’Italia faranno una durissima campagna per il no, molto più incisiva di quella per il voto di questa domenica sulle trivelle. M5S, Carroccio e FdI insieme arrivano intorno al 45%, dato che raggiunge il 50% considerando la sinistra radicale.

E’ del tutto evidente che Renzi dovrà avere l’appoggio di molti elettori moderati, tendenzialmente di Forza Italia, oltre che dell’NCD, anche per bilanciare il possibile no di una fetta di minoranza interna del PD (almeno quella che si riconosce nell’ex premier Massimo D’Alema). Insomma, il referendum sulle trivelle dimostra – numeri alla mano – che l’appuntamento decisivo per le sorti del governo e della politica, quello di ottobre, sarà una sfida apertissima. E perfino in salita per Renzi.

 

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