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ISTAT: decessi aumentati dell’11%, ai livelli degli anni Quaranta

di MICHELE BOCCI (Repubblica.it)

E gli esperti si interrogano: ci ammaliamo di più o ci curiamo peggio?

Mortalità, impennata misteriosa nel 2015: “Quei 45 mila scomparsi come in una guerra”

ROMA – Come durante la guerra, ma senza la guerra. Come se vivessimo sotto i bombardamenti. Uno studio interroga e preoccupa esperti in mezza Italia: nel 2015 il numero di morti nel nostro Paese è salito dell’11,3%. In un anno significherebbe 67mila decessi in più rispetto al 2014 (ad agosto sono già 45mila), per un incremento che davvero non si vedeva da decenni. I dati del bilancio demografico mensile dell’Istat raccontano qualcosa di abnorme, che già impegna i demografi e presto, quando saranno note le fasce di età e le cause, darà molto da lavorare anche agli esperti della sanità. Le schede appena pubblicate sul sito dell’Istituto di statistica arrivano fino all’agosto scorso e dicono che nei primi otto mesi sono stati registrati 445mila decessi, contro i 399mila nello stesso periodo dell’anno precedente. Si è passati cioè da una media di meno di 50mila al mese a una di oltre 55mila.

“Il numero è impressionante. Ma ciò che lo rende del tutto anomalo è il fatto che per trovare un’analoga impennata della mortalità, con ordini di grandezza comparabili, si deve tornare indietro sino al 1943 e, prima ancora, occorre risalire agli anni tra il 1915 e il 1918”, scrive sul sito di demografia Neodemos il professor Gian Carlo Blangiardo. “Certo, si tratta di dati provvisori, ma negli anni scorsi l’Istat ha sempre confermato alla fine dell’anno i numeri pubblicati mensilmente. Magari ci saranno correzioni, ma nell’ordine di alcune centinaia di casi. L’unità di grandezza che ci aspetta è quella”, chiarisce il docente. Nel 2013 e nel 2014, tra l’altro, il numero dei morti era calato, ma sempre di poco: mai si erano raggiunte percentuali in doppia cifra.

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